Phron Weekly #4: The Yen Carry Trade

OCTOBER 6th, 2024

RUSHIL PATEL

Last Edited:

OCTOBER 6th, 2024

2.5 Minutes

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Hi Everyone,

Welcome to the fourth edition of Phron Weekly! Before I get into today's review, I have an announcement.

I am making these newsletters shorter and more casual to increase consistency and make writing more enjoyable. The previous “mini-articles” format was fun but time-consuming. I believe these changes will help me provide you with valuable insights more regularly.

This week's review explores the upcoming changes, learnings from Heraclitus, and the Yen Carry Trade.

Reflections and Growth

”No man ever steps in the same river twice, for it's not the same river and he's not the same man” - Heraclitus

We cannot read the same thing twice, as we are different people the next time we read it. I see quotes in a new light each time I reflect on them. A quote can speak to my relationships in one day and a work challenge in another.

Due to our different experiences, I don't want to force an interpretation of a quote on you. I want to plant a 'seed of thought' that will inspire you to change in the best way for you. I want to leave space for you to find your own meaning.

A possible step

Revisit some quotes that you enjoy. How has the meaning transformed since you first encountered them?

Business Insights

Updates and the Yen Carry Trade Unfolding

Ideas previously presented in this section will be converted into articles. My initial intention with this section was to review some business ideas that I have come across briefly. These ideas provide insights from current markets and business rather than fundamental prowess. I will also provide links for you to explore these ideas further. This week's review goes over the Yen Carry Trade.

A carry trade involves borrowing money in a foreign currency at a low interest rate, investing that money, and using it to make high-yielding investments in another country. The Yen has been a popular choice for the strategy as its rates have historically been close to 0%. While this may seem like easy arbitrage — borrow some Yen, exchange to USD, and then invest in bonds — there are some risks. Changes in monetary policy and currency exchange rates are a source of risk.

In March 2024, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) increased its interest rates from -0.1% to 0.1%. This change is the first rate hike in years. The BoJ previously held negative interest rates to combat deflation and stimulate economic growth. This increase caused some investors to reverse their positions and buy back Yen to repay their loans. The rise in demand for Yen led to the appreciation of the Yen. From July 1, 2024, to September 1, 2024, the Yen appreciated by 10% to the USD. This increase further forced others to reverse their positions, accelerating the unfolding of the carry trade.

Takeaway

Investment strategies like the carry trade rapidly unravel when policies change. Always be aware of investment risks tied to market fluctuations.

Here are some links to learn more about the Yen Carry Trade:

Fun Fact: Did you know bananas are berries, but strawberries aren't ? This discrepancy arose due to people using the term berries before scientists came up with a precise definition.

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